It's a Civil War, Dammit

...and it has been for some time.  Civil War, Sectarian Violence, Al Qaida in Iraq, call it whatever you will, it's out of control, thousands of Americans have died, and if it's not getting worse, it's surely not getting any better.

 

So what's the big deal with the fucking semantics of it all?  Alter puts it into proper perspective here, including highlighting the timing of NBC News' decision to go forward with the 'Civil War' term. 

 

Just imagine the uproar if they made this decision two weeks before the election.

Blaze of Glory

If you've got to go down, go down in a blaze of glory. That's what happened in this hand. After getting my KK run over by AA for most of my stack, I limped along for a bit 'til this hand - in middle position I get AK suited. Since it's all-in or fold with my small stack (about 250 chips), I push. I get one caller and look what he lands:

Luckbox

Imagine making the call this clown makes and then seeing the turn card.

Full Tilt Poker Game #1310723081: $1 + $0.25 Sit & Go (9176972), Table 1 - 50/100 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:23:07 ET - 2006/11/26

Seat 1: OutlawJoseWales (2,600)
Seat 2: BILL531 (2,060)
Seat 3: djm182 (2,485) **that's me, and I'm on the button**
Seat 4: BiggerStack00 (750)
Seat 5: spott777 (5,825)
Seat 6: abnrgr__38 (4,470)
Seat 7: Hu_Li_Gan (3,560)
Seat 8: CopperChief (375)
Seat 9: topsrus777 (700)
BiggerStack00 posts the small blind of 50
spott777 posts the big blind of 100
The button is in seat #3

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to djm182 [As Ah] **Beautiful. Not just getting AA, but getting it on the button, where you can raise or call a big bet and people think you're playing position **
abnrgr__38 folds
Hu_Li_Gan raises to 400 **4x big blind**
CopperChief folds
topsrus777 calls 400
OutlawJoseWales folds
BILL531 folds
djm182 calls 400 **With two callers in front of me, I'm going to slow play this and just call it**
BiggerStack00 folds
spott777 folds

*** FLOP *** [5s Tc Qs]
Hu_Li_Gan bets 900
topsrus777 calls 300, and is all in
djm182 raises to 1,800 **I suppose he might have had Q-10 here, maybe he has AK of spades, but I'm gonna pop it and hopefully make him pay. Note that this leaves me with only 285 chips, so if he reraises it, I can assume he's got a good hand **
Hu_Li_Gan has 15 seconds left to act
Hu_Li_Gan calls 900 **A call...I've got him**

*** TURN *** [5s Tc Qs] [Jd] **Hmmm...I don't particularly like this card as it opens up a straight draw possibility, but I still think I've got him beat**
Hu_Li_Gan bets 500
djm182 calls 285, and is all in

Hu_Li_Gan shows [Jh Jc] **So the donk calls my post-flop raise - as I'd hoped he would - and strikes gold on the turn. That's it for me here.**
topsrus777 shows [Ad 9s]
djm182 shows [As Ah]
Uncalled bet of 215 returned to Hu_Li_Gan

*** RIVER *** [5s Tc Qs Jd] [2h]
Hu_Li_Gan shows three of a kind, Jacks
djm182 shows a pair of Aces
Hu_Li_Gan wins the side pot (3,570) with three of a kind, Jacks
topsrus777 shows Ace Queen high
Hu_Li_Gan wins the main pot (2,250) with three of a kind, Jacks
topsrus777 stands up
djm182 stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5,820 Main pot 2,250. Side pot 3,570. | Rake 0
Board: [5s Tc Qs Jd 2h]
Seat 1: OutlawJoseWales didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: BILL531 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: djm182 (button) showed [As Ah] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 4: BiggerStack00 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: spott777 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: abnrgr__38 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: Hu_Li_Gan showed [Jh Jc] and won (5,820) with three of a kind, Jacks
Seat 8: CopperChief didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: topsrus777 showed [Ad 9s] and lost with Ace Queen high

Wie blows up again

I think it's time for BJ to pull in the reins and bring his pride and joy back in to the stable for some fine tuning of her rapidly deteriorating game.

First Hand Brutality

After a turkey day full of chaos, I decide to sit down at night and relax with a nice game of FullTilt Poker. I settle in on my usual $1 NLHE sit & go, and lo and behold, I get dealt QQ in one shy of the cutoff position on the very first hand. It's raised up to $105 to go, so I make the call to see the flop.

It comes at me Q-4-J rainbow. I'm in the lead for certain. And what's this - I get three all-ins ahead of me. Well it's my lucky day! I insta-call and take the lead going to the turn.

But I'm in trouble. Not so much by the guy holding 4-4, he's got one out. Not even so much by the guy holding A-A, even though he has three outs relative to me, he's only got runner As to beat the guy holding 10-K.

And doesn't the turn bring the A, filling out this guy's straight. Yep, the guy who went all-in on just a draw wins the hand. Details here:

Home Game Stories

Always entertaining, even when you donk out halfway through.

 

* Our resident fish was back, min-raising everything in sight.  Early on, I get dealt 3-3, call a small raise and get to the flop.  It comes out 3-8-x and I fire at it.  About a half of the pot.  Our friend calls.  Turn is another low card.  I bet, he calls again.  River is a second eight.  Uh oh.  Could he have A-8?  Yeah, sure he could.  Of course, he'd play just about anything else too, so I bet out and he calls again. 

 

He turns over 10-10 for two pair.  Big pot and I'm on my way.

 

* For the next hour or so, I'm playing my typical tight-aggressive style.  I take one pot down with AK suited when a bullet comes on the flop.  I popped it to 3x the blinds (200 up to 600) pre-flop so I get some payback on that.  But otherwise, the cards are cold and the table is still seven-handed, so I'm still sitting tight.  Plus the blinds are going to go up big time in a level or two and I don't want to donk things off before then.

 

* Then I finally get a decent set of hole cards.  JJ, albeit in early position.  I bet 3x the blinds to see where I'm at.  I get a couple of callers.  The flop comes out with cards all weaker than J, and no great straight or flush possibilities.  Again, I bet.  The player to my left, an infrequent player in the home game but a decent player nonetheless raises it to 2x my bet.  I think about it and call.  I'm trying to get a read on him, but he's just stoic.  Sitting upright in the chair - but he always does that, so I can't really lean on Navarro's signature tell.  He's not tilting his head, he's not moving his hands out toward the table.  Legs are still.  My guess is that he's got a good-but-not-great hand (top pair with an A kicker) and that I can either take this down or edge him on a showdown...provided the cards fall the right way. 

 

So I set out to check-raise him on the turn, provided the card is a dud.  It is.  I check.  He bets, and I go all-in, which would force him all-in.  He instacalls with A-A.  Ouch.

 

* Now I'm clearly short-stacked and am in the easiest position to play poker - it's either all-in or fold.  And don't I get a run of 2-7, 3-8, 4-9 kind of hands for about six straight hands.  The blinds are attacking me, and soon enough, I'm dead.  I did triple up somewhere in there when I went all-in blind and my 9-7 hit the flop, but I gave it back soon after when K8 suited went up against QQ and 99 and lost to a set of 9s. 

 

* I did get a couple of reads out of the game though.  One player leans forward, almost over the table, and his legs just bounce around like mad when he has cards.  When I was short-stacked, I got 7-7 and just called it.  He raised and would've forced me all-in, but I looked over and he was bouncing around like a jumping bean.  I thought, laid it down and said "high pair, huh"?  I prodded a little further and it was, in fact, KK. 

 

* Another (very good) player puts his hand on his neck when he's got something marginal.  I didn't get to act upon it, but now I know that it's there. 

Bush Was Right!

Sometimes the comedy just writes itself. 

Boogity Boogity Boogity!!

Don't wreck Junior - you'll fire up the rednecks and they'll go off, no matter who is in the room.  This is simply stellar.

Is this the end for JoePa?

One doc seems to think so. 

 

It's a shame if it ends up this way and he doesn't get to go out on his terms - especially with the returning class for next year and the favorable schedule. 

FullTilt strikes back

So I win a 45-seat NLHE Sit & Go on Sunday night.  Just a $1 buy-in event so I'm not exactly quitting my day job after this, but it's still nice to take one of those down.  I was the short stack as the final table started, made some good moves, got some good cards, and always found myself in with the best hand - and they held up.

 

Afterward, I'm feeling pretty good about myself.  I'm learning more and more how to play the game - specifically how to play these online events.  But the thing is that just when your confidence is the highest, something happens to make you realize that you're really just a pawn in the game. 

 

Last night, in a bit of a time pinch, I sit down at a one-table, turbo NLHE event.  Again, just $1 at stake.  And what a difference a night makes. 

• I like to try to limp in with low-to-medium pocket pairs early on in these events.  Every time I called the blind, someone after me would pop it and I'd have to get away from the hand.  Every time it was the right move, but these added up. 
• Every time I called for a half-price flop out of the small blind, the big blind would pop it. 
• I paid to see a couple of other flops which turned out disastrous.

I got away from all of these, but they cost me.  So at Level V (50/100), I'm down to about 900 chips and haven't taken anything down yet.  The good news - I've once again established a tight reputation.  The bad news - I've only got 9 big bets left.  Something needs to happen, and happen soon.

And it does.  In the big blind, I get J-J.  I figure it's time to push.  Well someone in middle position pushes all-in and that has me covered.  The player to his left goes all-in as well.  I figure it's do or die on this hand, so I join the fracas as well.

 

First raiser: 88

Second raiser: AQo

Me: JJ

 

I'm just slightly worse than 50/50 to take this pot down.  Until this happens:

Flop:  Q-J-x

 

BAM!  I'm now 95% likely to win the hand and *triple-up* to about 2400 chips.  Right back in the mix.  The initial raiser needs runner 8s to survive.  The second raiser needs a Q, two As, A-Q, or runner straight cards (K-10).

 

Turn: A (NFW...eh, still 90% to win it)

 

River: Q

 

So the first caller gets a boat - Qs full of As, which trumps my Js full of Qs.  And I ride off into the sunset, once again a victim of the magic that is FullTilt Poker.

Blinded

I've come across no better example of the distance to which the ruling right got out of touch with reality than this: Karl Rove's belief - into election night - that the GOP would hold onto the House, let alone the Senate. 

 

A pretty comical read, I must confess.  :)

Put a Sock in it

I love this.  The people who need to shut the fuck up after the 2006 midterms.  Beautifully captured. 

The Election HELPS Shrub?

Maybe.  That's what Newsweeks's Jonathan Alter says.  The only missing piece I can see is 43's seemingly endless stubbornness.  Is he willing to back down from his bully pulpit to accept dissenting views?  Will he shun Rove and Cheney and listen to more moderate GOPers - or even listen to some from the other side of the aisle? 

 

If I'm Rove or Mehlman, I do everything I can to give this presidency as soft a landing as possible.  Right now, that's they're best hope to avoid another big surge to the left in 2008.

Colbert Mourns

Seems that Stephen is a bit shaken up about the GOP losses on Tuesday  He's at a loss for words during 'The Word'  Rip-roarin' hilarious.

Colbert Mourns

Seems that Stephen is a bit shaken up about the GOP losses on Tuesday  He's at a loss for words during 'The Word'  Rip-roarin' hilarious.

Rush Fesses Up

On Wednesday's confessional, El RushBo stepped behind the mic and said that he's been making it all up the last four or so years.  Really.  He does.  He casts stones at the far right that's been running the country - the same far right he routinely supports and endorses five days a week.  Well now that they've lost the election, he's kicking them to the curb.  It's back to true conservatism - whatever that is.  Liberals be damned.  Far right be damned.

 

Wanna know the best part?  The sheep that blindly follow this fat pill popping idiot have already bought into this nonsense.

 

Deep down, you KNOW that Rush is happy about the shift in Washington.  He's said as much before - remember Rush came into prominence when Clinton was in office.  Now he's got at least two years of a Democratic congress that he can take shots at.  The GOP lost the election, but I'm quite sure Rush is pleased.  It extends his miserable existence and self-created relevance a few more years.

Greatness isn't Permanent

One more shot from Maher on how America isn't as great as some people with blind faith in old glory would like you to believe that it is. 

 

The quote is Maher's.  The bold text is mine - this has nothing to do with hating America, all you simple-minded, right-wing neo-con freaks. 

 

And finally, New Rule: America must stop bragging that it's the greatest country on earth and start acting like it. Now, I know — I know this is uncomfortable for the faith-over-facts crowd, but the greatness of a country can, to a large degree, be measured. Here are some numbers: Infant mortality rate, America ranks 48th in the world; overall health, 72nd; freedom of the press, 44; literacy, 55th. Do you realize there are 12-year-old kids in this country who can't spell the name of the teacher they're having sex with?

Now, America, I will admit, has done many great things: making the New World democratic comes to mind, the Marshall Plan, curing polio, beating Hitler, the deep-fried Twinkie. But what have we done for us lately? We're not the freest country. That would be Holland, where you can smoke hash in church, and Janet Jackson's nipple is on their flag.

And, sadly, we're no longer a country that can get things done, either. Not big things, like building a tunnel under Boston or running a war with competence. We had six years to fix the voting machines. Couldn't get that done. The FBI is just now getting email!

Prop 87 out here in California is about lessening our dependence on oil by using alternative fuels, and Bill Clinton comes on at the end of the ad and says, "If Brazil can do it, America can, too." Excuse me, since when did America have to buck itself up by saying we could catch up to Brazil?! We invented the airplane and the lightbulb. They invented the bikini wax, and now they're ahead?!

In most of the industrialized world, nearly everyone has health care. And hardly anyone doubts evolution. And, yes, having to live amid so many superstitious dimwits is also something that affects quality of life. It's why America isn't going to be the country that gets the inevitable patents in stem cell cures, because Jesus thinks it's too close to cloning!

Oh, and did I mention we owe China a trillion dollars? We owe everybody money. America is a debtor nation to Mexico! We're not on a bridge to the 21st century. We're on a bus to Atlantic City with a roll of quarters.

WHITMAN: Take those — bring those quarters to Atlantic City, yes.

MAHER: And this is why it bugs me that so many people talk like it's 1955 and we're still number one in everything. We're not. And I take no glee in saying this, because I love my country , and I wish we were. But when you're number 55 in this category and number 92 in that one, you look a little silly waving the big foam "Number One" finger.

As long as we believe being the greatest country in the world is a birthright, we'll keep coasting on the achievements of earlier generations and we'll keep losing the moral high ground. Because we may not be the biggest or the healthiest or the best educated. But we always did have one thing no other place did. We knew soccer was bulls***.

And...and we also had a little thing called the Bill of Rights. A great nation doesn't torture people or make them disappear without a trial. Bush keeps saying the terrorists hate us for our freedom. And he's working damn hard to see that pretty soon that won't be a problem.
 

Sweeney Donates to a Pal

Birds of a feather flock together. 

 

The latest Siena poll shows that Gillibrand just might pull this off.  BTW, Gaia, or Gayle, or whatever the hell your name is, STOP CALLING ME!!!

Voter Suppression

An old GOP standby, at least until Election Day when they quickly move on to Voter Disenfranchisement. 

 

This is an innovative (ha!) and clever (ha ha!)...well ok, low ball conniving below-the-belt trick from our friends on the right.  Supposed crank phone calls from the democratic candidates. 

Vent

Allow me to vent.

 

I'm sitting at a $0.05/$0.10 NL cash game.  Bets are capped...so no matter how much $$ you have, you can't bet more than $3 at any hand.  I bring $5 to the table. 

 

Guy to my left seems to be playing quite loose.  Saw him lose a hand with cards he never should've played with.  I took a smaller pot from him when he continued to bet with nothing.  It's the guy you'd rather have on your right than on your left, but I think there's some profit to be made here.

 

A few hands in, I get 35o in the big blind and check.  Flop comes 2-3-5.  Hot damn.  I bet the pot, he calls (??), and we go to the turn.  Turn is a 7.  I bet the pot AGAIN and he calls. 

 

What do you put this guy on?  Me - I've put him on A-x.  Take two guesses to what the river is.  He bets out and I fold to save my money.  I'm 80% positive he had the A...maybe A-6 or K-6.  There was no way to get him off the hand. 

 

In the next few minutes, he's throwing back cash from playing too loosely.  Eventually, I get AQo.  Flop is Q-x-x, but two hearts.  I bet something like 1/2 pot.  Calls me.  Turn is a blank.  I bet the pot, he calls again.  River is a K.  I bet, he raises, we cap the bet, and he turns over K-x of hearts. 

 

In BOTH CASES, I get my money in with the best hand, make bets/raises which stack the pot odds against him...and he continues to draw and ends up sucking out on me both times. 

 

This drives me completely batshit crazy. 

Olbermann Tees Off Again

and stripes one long and down the middle. 

 

NOW, can we PLEASE put the Kerry gaffe to rest and focus on the ineptitude of the past six years?

Maher on Think Tanks

Just a fabulous "New Rule" from the 20 October episode. 

 

Details below.  The full transcript of all that episode's New Rules is here.

 

And finally, New Rule, in two parts: A) You can't call yourself a think tank if all your ideas are stupid. And B), if you're someone from one of the think tanks that dreamed up the Iraq War, and who predicted that we'd be greeted as liberators, and that we wouldn't need a lot of troops, and that Iraqi oil would pay for the war, that the WMD's would be found, that the looting wasn't problematic, and the mission was accomplished, that the insurgency was in its last throes, that things would get better after the people voted, after the government was formed, after we got Saddam, after we got his kids, after we got Zarqawi, and that the whole bloody mess wouldn't turn into a civil war...you have to stop making predictions!

You know, there's a name for people who are always wrong about everything all the time: husbands. You know, it's a shame what happened to think tanks. They used to produce valuable, apolitical analysis. But partisanship crept into many of them. And the Bush Administration doesn't just come up with something as stupid as "If we leave now, they'll follow us home." No, they have someone from a think tank say it first. It's a way to lend respectability. The same reason a titty bar has food. I hear.

The think tanks that incubated the Iraq war have lofty names like the Heritage Foundation and the Project for a New American Century. Whatever. They've been wrong so often, I'm surprised they're not my broker. Richard Perle thought we could win Iraq with 40,000 troops. Paul Wolfowitz predicted, in 2003, that within a year, the grateful people of Baghdad would name some grand square in their fine city after President Bush. And he was right when he said they'd be waving American flags. They were on fire.

William Kristol pooh-poohed the fears that Sunnis and Shiites would be at each others' throats, as "the stuff of pop psychology." Right. And having your head chopped off is just a quick way to drop 11 pounds. Kristol, of course, is revered by much of the right because he was Dan Quayle's chief of staff, and was known as "Quayle's Brain." You know that. Which sounded impressive until I remembered Dan Quayle didn't have a brain.

And now, Mr. Kristol proposes immediate military action against Iran, predicting the Iranians will thank us for it. Hey, you know what, Nostrodamus? Why don't you sit this one out?

We'll get by using the Magic Eight Ball for a while. Because you guys have been so wrong about so much for so long, people are actually turning to the Democrats. So, we can say Iraq was a noble experiment, if that helps you. Our intention was good: to penetrate Iraq and bring it to a glorious, euphoric climax. But it's clear now that's just not going to happen. And yet we're still pounding away.

Causing the whole area to become painfully inflamed. And in that situation, the kindest thing you can do is...just pull out.