PLO Freeroll

The best thing about winning a seat into AIPS in two weeks is that I have no need to participate in next week's freeroll. 

 

My God what a horrendous display of donkitude, highlighted by the player to my right, Eskimosomethingorother (hereafter: Sir Donk), who barely saw a pot he didn't splash around in.  And I'll be damned if he didn't get slugged in the face by the virtual deck.  He jacked his stack up to around $23k by the break - and that was also the key to my success.  

 

I just sat back and folded.  Got below 1000 chips, doubled up through Sir Donk.  I believe that every pot I won came largely at this guy's expense - surely most of them came that way.  

 

Here's the highlight hand.  I believe this is at the 150/300 level and I have about 3000 chips, but that's purely from memory  Anyway, in the SB I have KKxx, suited in spades.  About five limpers come along and I jump in for the half-price ride too.  The flop is A42, all spades.  Bingo.  This is screaming check-raise and that's exactly what I do.  It checks around to Sir Donk and he fires a smallish bet at it.  I go 3/4 pot on top of him...and it folds back around, where the Sir promptly calls. 

 

The turn is a 4, pairing the board, and all of a sudden I just might be effed.  Here, with the stack size I have left, I have to shove.  Check-folding is not a viable option at this level. 

 

He calls...he doesn't have a pocket pair, he doesn't have a 4, and he doesn't have the spade flush.  I forget what he had, but it was, for all intents and purposes, *air*. 

 

This gave me ~6500 chips and I folded my way into the seat from there.  This guy whittled his stack from $23k down to about $13k in a *snap* before finally realizing what he was doing and then sitting out the rest. 

 

One more observation - the number of people who kept driving action toward the bubble was surprising.  I don't play a lot of freerolls, and I expect tons of amateurish play, but the difference between finishing 1st and 28th in these is exactly zero.  No need to be a hero and put your stack at risk. 

 

At least the format is fast.  Started at 9PM...done by 10:45ish.

 

Where were the Brazilians?

The Bad Run Comes to a Screeching Halt

All those bad beats, all those card-dead runs, all this bullshit I've been fighting off for the last few months...well it turned around tonight.

I'll try to compile key hands in the next day or two, but suffice it to say that I caught well, played well, dodged many bullets, and went out fourth out of 300 in a $5 PLO8 tourney. Really wanted to take it down and almost got the chip lead at the FT, but things dried up.

I sucked out 2-3 times late, then finally got ran down when I was all-in w/ the attached hand. Happens.

Finally restores the bankroll...a bit.

More later...I'm effing *tired*.

Classic WSJ Drivel

This is just classic, uber-right wing drivel in oh so many ways. 

 

1) The title.  It's not "Obama's Dow" just like it wasnt "Bush's" or "Clinton's".  And let's hold off 'til this thing is within sniffing distance of 5000 before we pin a 30+% drop in it (since appx. 1/20/09) on anybody. 

 

2) Not that you can blame jack shit about the current economic situation on a guy who has been in office just over 30 days.  Yeah, I don't think anyone can argue that the stimulus packages are optimal, but they're better than nothing and they're most assuredly better than the age-old, time-tested, and continually debunked magical "tax cuts". 

 

3) I just LUV the channeling of Reagan.  Yeah, what we need is unabridged optimism, despite staring potential deflation, rising unemployment and a 5% year-on-year GDP drop.  Yeah, optimism.  That and that alone will do the trick.  Jeez. 

 

Well optimism is fine when it's coupled with practicality.  I believe I'm getting both from the sitting president. 

 

4) I'd like to see Santelli give that same pitch in a less "protected" environment.  And just like Wall Street may be tired of populist rhetoric, the far and away bigger slice of Americans are sick of the Wall Street-types running the show.  They've proven they can effectively run it smack into the ground, bleeding Main Street dry in the process. 

 

5) "Get the Bipartisanship thing going".  Pot.  Kettle.  Black. 

 

The comments are just too scary to elaborate on.  My God there are some fucking idiots in my country. 

 

Deep into the $5 KO

There were 993 runners in the 8PM $5 KO event on Full Tilt last night.  I was one of them and was also one of the last ones standing - finishing 40th for $11 or so plus a couple of bounties.  Man that is one skewed payout structure.  For the first time in a long time, some cards came my way, although that did dry up late.  That leads me to this one hand. 

At the 800/1600/200 level, I'm UTG with 13,508 chips and I look down at 9h 9c.  I thought about it - really there are only two options...fold or shove.  The table was full and had been playing fairly standard, although the player to my immediate right (BB here, with 2x my chip stack) had been quite aggressive, particularly in limped pots.  Two other stacks had me thoroughly covered (42k and 60k in chips).

It's decision time.  What would you do?

One other noteworthy hand from early on in the event.  This is at the 50/100 level.  In the BB I have J6o.  It limps to the SB who limps in and I check.  Flop is Q-high, rainbow and uncoordinated.  We both check.  The turn is a J.  He checks and I throw a 1/2 pot bet (100) out there.  He then check-raises, making it 280 to go.  Huh?

Well, for whatever reason, I do not believe him.  So I call.  And the river brings a 6, giving me two pair.  Well this guy makes a pot-size bet at it and I have to believe he's either got a big ace and missed everything, or he caught some piece of this and is concerned by my call.  Well with my stack size, calling here is NOT an option so I decide to shove.  He calls fairly quickly w/ Q8 for top pair, P.O.S. kicker. 

I double-up on a hand I was ready to snap fold to any pressure pre-flop or on the flop, and he goes of the deep end.  I'm a donk, I'm a tard, etc.  Whatever. 

Was the call of the check-raise on the turn weak?  Perhaps.  For whatever reason, I didn't buy his line, and I sure don't understand his call on the river with a naked Queen.  If I'm going to raise a check-raiser on a later street, don't I have to have a single pair beat? 

Well I'll be...

God damned...


I actually found some cards...picked up a bit of a stack when I made a move five-handed w/ KQd, got raised all-in and had to call it. Funny...the guy (who had me outchipped) had 44 and I outflopped him (BREAKING!!). Then lo-and-behold I was the big stack and dadgumit I played it like the big stack. This was a pretty passive table - once the looney short stack to my left went away, I kept raising my SB when limped to and the BB would fold like clockwork. I kept taking the amount of the raise down and he kept folding.

Caught some cards once we got through the bubble too.

I don't want to say this was easy - but it was a hell of a lot easier than it's been the past few weeks/months.

Am I playing again tonight? Hell no - I'm gonna sleep on this one :)

86 year-old's bill

Identity theft?  Shit, I suspect the old biddy is just a certifiable horn dog.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29308856/

Getting short-stacked

More of the same last night.  3 or 4 SNGs...cashed in none.  Missed out in the $5 KO tourney as well.  No particularly horrible beats that I can recall...last night was more of an issue about getting short-stacked and being unable to overcome it. 

 

The recurring theme seems to be as follows:

* I'm getting NO starting hands of merit.  Again, I do not have tracking software (what am I going to buy it with at this bankroll??), so I cannot prove this, but *man* it's tough to win pots when you're bringing a knife to a gunfight.

 

* Related: when I do pick up something, I seem to be missing tons of flops.  Last night I flopped exactly zero sets, and missed alot when I was able to see cheap flops with AJ, AQ, KQs, etc.

 

* I seem to be getting check-raised and pushed around much more frequently as of late.  This is where I wonder how much people are looking at Sharkscope or some other tracking tool when they play me.  My sharkscope graph has to look like the Dow for the last few months.  How many people are referencing these while I'm sitting at the table with them?  The amount of "playing back" and check raising, etc. that I'm encountering is noticeably higher.

 

* I'm bluffing less.  In the past, I've not needed to bluff much...particularly at the early levels...to do damage in SNGs.  I've saved that for near the bubble when people's sphincters tighten up.  I do know that bluffing more and showing down weak trash is NOT the way to get out of this cycle. 

 

I'm getting eliminated 4th/5th quite a lot in SNGs...and making it to the top 20-30% of a lot of these MTTs (AIPS event I excluded), but never feel like I'm in a position to get real deep.  I have to do something here...but what?

 

 

A Sign from Above? (updated)

Maybe things are changing?

$5 KO Tourney on Tilt.  I'm short stacked (surprise) and find QQ UTG+2.  <10BBs, but I only go 4x hoping to get action from a particular LAG.  Sure enough he shoves and I snap call.  He flips over QTo (!).

That's the kind of action I'm lookin for!

Still gonna need some help in this event.  16BBs left at 80/160.  231 runners and 90 get paid. 


UPDATE: Never mind. This is what happens when you tangle with the big stack.
I knew he'd call when it folded to him. I knew I'd lose when he started to catch up on the flop.



The best part was in the chat afterward where he said that I "overplayed the fishhooks". And exactly how did he play his bottom pair?

Daily Update

I'm going to keep doing these until this run to end all bad runs finally hits the finish line. 

 

Last night I played the Cheap Stakes $0.50 tourney on Stars.  I lasted appx. 30 minutes and had only one hand of note.  In the BB I look down at QQ.  There's a 3x raise from MP, and the SB shoves for 1200 chips.  I have slightly more than him. 

 

Keep in mind this is a $0.50 tourney here, so I'm not exactly surrounded by Kid Poker or Hachem.  Well I either want chips or I want to get away from this, so I shove - fully expecting the MP raiser to come along.  He does. 

 

We flip over the following:

MP: AKo

SB: A9s

Me: QQ

 

Flop Q J T w/ two diamonds...holy crap, I flopped top set!!...and I'm way behind the flopped broadway.  But stop the presses...I actually improved my hand.  That in and of itself is noteworthy. 

 

Of course I didn't improve from there. 

 

Then on to a $10 SNG on Tilt.  The usual, I never really got much above a starting stack until we got to five-handed, where AT outlasted A5.  Then I slowly bled down into the money, crashing and burning in 3rd as the short stack. 

 

I can sum this recent experience up as follows:

* I'm having trouble finding good situations to play.  When I have a stealable hand from late pos., there's almost always a strong raise in front of me.  I'm not interested in calling with 78s in this format - I'd much rather raise here, but the stack sizes mean I'll be committing waaayyy too much of my stack on a drawing hand.  Back to the main point - I'm finding it hard to encounter appropriate spots to come into hands aggressively.  And if you can't do that in the first 3-4 levels of a SNG, all of a sudden you have about 10-12 BBs left and your options are just SO limited. 

* I'm not getting enough quality starting hands, and when I do, I'm rarely getting action.

* I've become a bit gunshy on bluffing.  I did run a couple as we got to five-handed in the SNG last night, but I've been looked up SO much more often lately that I'm becoming more hesitant to pull the trigger...not that I ever bluff that much to begin with. 

 

This has definitely affected my mental approach and I need to just go full bore into some games with no reservations to get beyond this. 

 

Tonight's Specialty...

...runner-runner flush.



Worst.  Run.  Ever. 
- I cannot catch a reasonable starting hand
- When I do, I'm getting NO action...or too much action.  One hand earlier in this SNG at the 30/60 level, I have AKo on the button.  There are two limpers in front of me.  I pop it to 325 to go.  Both blinds and both limpers call.  Yes, five to the flop when I'm holding AK.  Needless to say, the flop is coordinated junk and I have to throw it away to the instashove from the blinds. 
- I'm making very few bluff attempts - and when I do bluff, I get picked off (like in AIPS ... one bluff and I run smack into a monster).
- I'm repeatedly getting short-stacked in my quest to find a playable situation.  I'm more than happy to be aggressive and am looking for opportunities to do so, but I'll be damned if I reraise in a SNG w/ K2 suited and assorted trash like that. 
- When I finally get the cards in, I'm either super short and just trying to find anything to shove with...or I'm getting it in ahead and getting out drawn. 

This will end.  It has to end.  I just can't figure out how or when. 

But wait, there's more...

Well, I was short-stacked and I can't kill him for making the call. But still...

This is How I Run

Continued from, oh, the last 3-4 months...

Buffalo Plane Crash and the possible science behind it

Miles O'Brien, formerly of CNN, knows his shit.  A very good read for anyone with a shred of interest in the science of flight. 

Onion Radio News

I get this every day.  This one was a classic.

"...military-grade Kleenex"  Epic.

AIPS

It simply was not going to happen tonight.  I got lots of hands early - and no action.  I stole some blinds midway through the first hour with no resistance, but I picked the wrong hand to bluff with, lost a decent chunk of my stack, and just bled chips from there.  Finally reraised all-in w/ AQ and the villain has AK. 

Play was remarkably passive and predictable too.  I just could not capitalize.  Bah.

Westminster

I'm all excited for Westminster.  I love dogs, have two of them, and loved going to the DKC show when I lived in Detroit.  Plus this is Westminster, which is the shit and all that. 

So I set the DVR, turn it on tonight, and hear this vaguely familiar female voice doing the intro while the truck shows a variety of canned shots from prior shows.  Well it's not Joe Garagiola, which is good, but it's also not Lester Holt who did a fine job the past couple of years. 

Just who is this new host?

Mary Carillo.

AAArrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgh!!

Tonight's Bullshit

Tonight was cooler night.

I get nothing in the 180 runner $8 tourney.  Crawl through the first break, then finally pick up AKo on the button.  UTG+1 limps, Cutoff raises to 400, and I insta-shove.  Both entrants call.  They check it down all the way (there are about 90 left at this point).  Limper showed up w/ AJo, and Cutoff woke up w/ KK.  Good night to me. 

Then I dive into a $10 SNG and this happens. 
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/279645

Brrrrrr.

Sometime I have to hit one of these, right?

This is on the bubble of a SNG.  Other than folding, which seems pretty weak, not sure what I can do differently. 

Full Tilt Poker Game #10497989017: $20 + $2 Sit & Go (79297166), Table 1 - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:06:36 ET - 2009/02/07
Seat 1: sos41 (6,315)
Seat 2: djm182 (2,700)
Seat 5: assron (2,355)
Seat 9: Theologian78 (2,130)
sos41 posts the small blind of 120
djm182 posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to djm182 [Ah 2h]
assron folds
Theologian78 raises to 480
sos41 folds
djm182 calls 240 (I cannot fold this to a minraise)
*** FLOP *** [Th 3s 4h]
djm182 bets 2,220, and is all in (First to act, maybe he'll fold.  I've got 12 outs, and just maybe my Ace is good)
Theologian78 calls 1,650, and is all in
djm182 shows [Ah 2h]
Theologian78 shows [Ad Ts] (OK, 12 outs twice)
Uncalled bet of 570 returned to djm182
*** TURN *** [Th 3s 4h] [Td]
*** RIVER *** [Th 3s 4h Td] [8c] (I. Never. Improve.)
djm182 shows a pair of Tens
Theologian78 shows three of a kind, Tens
Theologian78 wins the pot (4,380) with three of a kind, Tens

The Never-Ending Cooler

Had my heart set on playing some tourneys and SNGs tonight.  Let's go to the recap:

* $2.20 NLHE Donkfest on Stars.  99<57o on a 3 4 6 flop.  I preflop raise it from UTG+2 and get called by said hand.  Later on, with a short stack, I get it in w/ AKo vs JJ and TT, never improving

* $11 SNG on Tilt.  Lose 2/5ths of my stack when 88<KQ on a rivered straight.  Then I lose the rest with AA UTG, standard raise, and a call.  I shove on a 5KQ rainbow flop and stack off to KQh.  I was dealt AA 3x in 28 hands here.  Doubled up on the first, won a small pot with the second, got stacked on the third.  WP, djm182.  WP you piece of shit.

* $8.80 169 player tourney on Tilt.  Get the Cosenza in the cutoff on first hand.  UTG and hijack limp in and call my raise.  Flop 4QA w/ 2 diamonds.  Checks around, I bet 1/2 pot and hijack calls.  Turn Td.  He check calls me again.  River is 4th diamond, he shoves and I fold, 1/4 of my stack gone. 

I fold a dozen hands in a row, then find AKo on the button.  Short stack shoves (305 chips), idiot hijack from earlier hand flat calls that.  I shove.  Hijack comes along (of course he does).  Shorty has 57c, Idiot has 99 (ok, fine).  What happens?  Wait for it.  I.  Never.  Improve. 

* OK, one last $11 SNG on Tilt.  I chip up a bit early.  About 13 hands in I have AJd in MP and raise.  Folds around to the UTG limper who calls.  Flop TAK rainbow.  I bet and get min-raised.  I tilt off and shove.  He calls w/ ATo. 

My mistakes?  There are (at least) three.
1) I'm too eager to get chips in against a bigger stack early on in events.
2) I'm not sniffing out player characteristics like I should. 
3) I keep playing despite being on a three-month run of bad luck and suspect play.

For about two months this fall, I *pwned* the $10-$20 SNGs.  Now I'm getting destroyed.  It's not all my fault, but I bear a good chunk of the blame.  This endless cooler sure isn't helping, though.

Enough of this bullshit, I'm off to the Wii. 

XLIII Recap

The game that was well on it's way to being another mediocre Super Bowl became a classic with about 10:00 left.  Arizona's drive straight through the defense, capped by Fitzgerald's first TD, turned the game around.  The Cardinals owned the game from there all the way through Fitzgerald's second TD, which was a fantastic bit of playcalling by the Cards. 

And then the "prevent" defense kicks in.  And the Steelers pick away at it, Holmes busts one down to the 5, then snags one in the corner of the end zone.  Ballgame.  It was a great one, but I would've preferred to see the Cardinals win - especially after that bullshit cheap shot by one of the Steelers late in the fourth quarter.  I'm pleased that pissant Clark didn't really get to put a hurting on anyone with his cheap hit style of play. 

Some random thoughts:
* The result at least keeps my "Streak for the Cash" streak alive at a (ahem) personal best of 4.
* "Ben" is big and slow...and runs around in the pocket all the time, yet nobody can catch him.  This astounds me.  I'm equally as slow, and if it were me in the pocket, I'd get clobbered. 
* Here's to Brenda Warner for, quite possibly, one of the greatest non-reality show makeovers of all time. 
* This game hinged on that 100-yard INT TD return, in which about six Cardinals could've stopped it, not the least of which was Kurt Warner who not only threw the poor INT but could've at least tried to direct Woodson out of bounds. 
* Too much officiating, although there weren't any calls that I saw which appeared to be wrong. 
* She talks like she's on quaaludes, and her pregame bit on Kurt Warner was far too poetic, but I've got a mute button on my screen, and I'll gladly press it if I need to just to get more Alex Flanagan in my life. 

And, of course, the Springsteen recap.  My expectations were tampered somewhat only due to the environment he was playing in.  These halftime boondoggles have historically been played with smallish crowds around the stage of people who looked like they were paid to be there.   Tonight, with a bigger stage and a fuller field, this actually felt like a concert.  Points are deducted for the trimming of verses from the songs - I'd rather have seen a "10th Avenue"..."Working on a Dream"..."Born to Run" set with the full songs delivered, but I understand why they did what they did. 

But despite any nits I can pick, I have to say that this was very well done.  Far and away the best halftime show ever - even outpacing U2 back in '02.  The Boss' schtick at the open was outstanding.  The band sounded great - the choir for "Dream" was a very nice touch and added something to the song.  I could do without the fireworks and the referee schtick at the end, but I get it too. 

Give the Cadillac and the trip to Disney to the Boss

Steven Van Zandt: It'ssssss BOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSSS Tiiiiiiimmmmmmmmeeeee!!!